Plausibly Deniable

01:25:23

The Diminishing Returns on Telling the Truth

Plausibly Deniable ·

2026/10/01

Lukas and Saila talk about absurdly long game release timelines, predicting movies before they exist, why “deny, deny, deny” and strategic dishonesty increasingly go unpunished, AI safety messaging and media incentives, technological pessimism and Ted Kaczynski’s critique of modernity, LASIK and cosmetic surgery, American healthcare and tort law, Social Security and voting incentives, and Roy Lee’s viral marketing strategy.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX:

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02:42:00

The Audience Problem | Matthew Peterson

Plausibly Deniable ·

2026/09/24

Matthew Peterson, founder of FORUM and The American Mind, joins Lukas and Saila to discuss the fights inside the Trump coalition, why Silicon Valley hasn't won over the populists, and what right-wing media would look like if it cared about building things. They get into FORUM's Joe Lonsdale–Joe Allen debate, the resentment behind the data-center backlash, AI as empowerment or centralized control, privacy, regulation, and whether the government ends up with its own frontier lab.The conversation also

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01:10:19

The Problem with Knowing Things

Plausibly Deniable ·

2026/09/17

Lukas and Saila talk about product reviews and Costco bulk buying, AI safety and political burnout, Middle East news and the Lindsay Clancy trial, how people evaluate medicine and scientific evidence, podcast analytics and consumer behavior, crypto and the Clarity Act, jury trials, cooking, sun exposure, fishing, and the very different cultures of YouTube and X.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press:

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01:38:12

Game Theory Optimal

Plausibly Deniable ·

2026/09/10

Welcome back to the Plausibly Deniable Experience. Lukas and Saila enter Soycast mode to reconstruct cooking from first principles, prove that bachelor slop is game-theory optimal, and explain why sharing food with roommates produces resentment instead of consumer surplus. We investigate the hidden fat tax, nuclear-powered dishwasher cabinets, and whether the government should pay your grandmother to cook for you.Then: why Twitter got boring, quote-tweet parasitism, synthetic OpenAI equity, and

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02:03:17

AI News And The Manufactured Internet | Brian Chau

Plausibly Deniable ·

2026/09/03

Brian Chau has figured out how to use AI for journalism without producing AI slop: make the models read mountains of documents, then make humans write the story.Brian is the founder of Effort News, a publication using long-context AI to comb through federal databases, financial records, legal filings, and other giant piles of public data for stories everyone else missed. He joins Lukas and Saila to explain the refugee-resettlement grant investigation that convinced him to launch Effort, why ordinary

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01:33:24

The Reindustrialization Of America | Jakob Diepenbrock

Plausibly Deniable ·

2026/08/27

Jakob Diepenbrock is running a hard-tech fund from El Segundo, backing young engineers building defense, manufacturing, robotics, energy, and other critical industries. He joins Lukas and Saila to explain how he skipped the credential ladder, built Discipulus Ventures, raised a fund by treating the process like a startup launch, and why Anduril’s breakout made defense tech the allocation everyone suddenly wanted.They also discuss cost-plus military contracts, drones versus soldiers, DJI’s domination

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02:02:46

The Bliss of Confirmation Bias — w/ Covfefe Anon

Plausibly Deniable ·

2026/08/20

Covfefe Anon returns to Plausibly Deniable to discuss the bliss of confirmation bias: how to engineer a viral take, why the edit may be the native medium of the 21st century, and why Angry Birds might be the most fascist movie ever made. Lukas, Saila and Covfefe review films they have not seen, explain why ironic criticism only makes its targets cooler, and consider whether Confirmation Bias is actually a better name for the podcast.The conversation also covers Ryan Gosling, Barbenheimer, James

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01:33:56

Coin-Flipping and the Linguistic Destruction of America

Plausibly Deniable ·

2026/08/13

America has become a coin-flipping economy—and the language we use now punishes anyone foolish enough to take things seriously.Lukas and Saila discuss AI psychosis and a 76,000-contact CRM, the fragmented B2B SaaS economy, travel-authorization scams, tax software, W-2 employment, lawsuits, bankruptcy, fake sponsorships, macro investors with monkey pictures, crypto traders posting inspirational corn after blowing up, and Costco gold arbitrage.Then they turn to the linguistic destruction of America:

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01:49:27

Cooking With Arsenic: Why Cops Can't Shoot Pet Cats

Plausibly Deniable ·

2026/08/06

Lukas and Saila talk about an accidental arsenic-poisoning bonfire, frustrating hospital visits, bizarre injuries, the Hunter Biden–Nick Fuentes interview, Gavin Newsom, European manufacturing, aging, astrology and viral internet tools, gender and dating dynamics, rural life, bulk food, FBI encounters, online anonymity, food quality, RFK Jr., AI culture, Silicon Valley politics, cats, dogs, strange neighbors, self-deception and AI-assisted coding.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash:

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02:19:26

Private Money And The Norwood Supremacy: w/ Mert

Plausibly Deniable ·

2026/07/28

Mert Mumtaz, co-founder and CEO of Helius, joins Lukas and Saila to explain why privacy is crypto’s unfinished business, why he sees Zcash as encrypted—or “better”—Bitcoin, and what the Ironwood upgrade means for the Orchard pool, supply integrity, formal verification and quantum recoverability.They compare Zcash and Monero, unpack fungibility and tainted coins, discuss private finance on Solana and Helius’s work with Light Protocol, and examine why public blockchains risk becoming a global

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02:22:22

The Libertarian Addiction to Losing and New Hampshire...

Plausibly Deniable ·

2026/07/23

Jeremy Kauffman joins the Positively Deniable Experience to explain how spending a few hours per week on libertarian politics helped throw the national Libertarian Party into chaos—and why he believes the Free State movement is succeeding in New Hampshire while the national party remains committed to losing.Jeremy recounts the rise of LBRY and Odysee, the SEC case that destroyed the company, crypto’s early generation of true believers, and the attempt to build a censorship-resistant alternative to

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02:12:03

Escaping The IQ Shredder: with Spandrell

Plausibly Deniable ·

2026/07/16

Spandrell joins us to explain the “IQ Shredder”: how successful cities attract ambitious, intelligent people from across the world, place them into a hypercompetitive rat race, and then make it nearly impossible for them to reproduce.We discuss why fertility is collapsing across virtually every developed society, whether Israel has escaped the trend, why financial incentives have repeatedly failed, and what governments could realistically do to make family formation prestigious again.Spandrell also

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02:09:04

Nukes are Good For You, Actually

Plausibly Deniable ·

2026/07/07

The boys return under plague conditions to discuss why nukes might be less socially destructive than dating discourse, the ethics of height-maxxing children with growth hormone, the “ship it, I guess” approach to biohacking, trad life vs gene editing, Europe’s anti-AC death drive, Singapore, Yarvin, Nick Land, cats, prediction markets, bought accounts, World Cup confusion, and why prediction markets might just be manifestation markets.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash:

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02:02:03

The Sensitive Old Man Problem

Plausibly Deniable ·

2026/06/26

Lukas and Saila return from San Francisco with takes on city discourse, scam calls, GLP-1s, power-law dating, Elon’s financial engineering, Polymarket political markets, RFK Jr., airport lounge arbitrage, SFO baggage purgatory, “not financial advice” disclaimers, pharmaceutical ads, weed, birth control, IQ-tiered libertarianism, and why every abstract argument eventually becomes a dating take.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork

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01:58:56

Bay Area House Party Epilogue

Plausibly Deniable ·

2026/06/11

Lukas records through food poisoning while the boys recap San Francisco, Bay Area house parties, Twitter people becoming real, unlimited oysters, Crime George, social minefields, Uber drivers, crypto trading, Modern Warfare 2, travel degeneracy, lost wallets, coconut water, Ray Peat breathing, Veblen goods, publicists, and whether having a podcast has made normal social interaction impossible.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork

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01:58:56

Beyond Dual Citizenship: The Case for Becoming a...

Plausibly Deniable ·

2026/06/06

NEED SOME PASSPORTS??https://citizenx.com/?ref=PlausiblyDeniableAlex from CitizenX joins Plausibly Deniable to explain the strange, funny, and increasingly important world of buying citizenship.We talk about why wealthy people are collecting passports, how citizenship by investment actually works, why Europe is cracking down on “golden passport” programs, and why more people are treating passports as geopolitical insurance. Alex breaks down the difference between residency, citizenship, and

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03:44:52

Vegas: Ragebait Advertising and The 'Idea' of Fun

Plausibly Deniable ·

2026/05/30

Vegas is no longer pretending to be normal.This episode starts with the Enhanced Games, Polymarket’s viral “steroid Olympics” coverage, the strange incentives around performance enhancement, and why people misunderstood what the first Enhanced Games actually proved. Then we get into the anthropology of modern Vegas: male models, status games, fake DJ sets, clubbing where nobody talks to each other, and a dating culture where the photo has replaced the actual interaction.We also cover TSA house

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01:56:00

Extremely Alternative Medicine, Cooking While...

Plausibly Deniable ·

2026/05/15

In this episode of Plausibly Deniable, the boys investigate the greatest arbitrage in modern America: food trucks, male slop, crockpots, Discord servers, fake enterprise software, BlueAnon, healthcare middlemen, manifesto technology, European decline, and a raccoon bite story that probably should have gone to a doctor.They also get into Polymarket AI model markets, why Discord should just rebrand itself as Slack for adults, why cooking for one person is fake productivity, whether every market can be

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02:34:10

Enhanced Games: Bioengineered Sports, Ethical...

Plausibly Deniable ·

2026/05/08

Christian Angermeyer joins Plausibly Deniable to discuss the Enhanced Games, performance-enhancing drugs, psychedelic medicine, longevity, telehealth, ambition, and building companies around controversial ideas before they become mainstream.Christian argues that the debate around performance enhancement is stuck in moral panic, bad incentives, and missing data. He explains why the Enhanced Games are designed not just as a sports spectacle, but as a research and media platform: athletes competing

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03:33:52

The Conservative case for the Machine God - w/ Lomez

Plausibly Deniable ·

2026/05/01

Lomez joins Plausibly Deniable for a long conversation on the old internet, the rise of online politics, academia, Gamergate, Twitter, AI, prediction markets, publishing, and the strange incentives of modern work.We talk about Lomez’s path from an early remote job at Google to academia, how 2014-era campus politics pushed him online, the evolution of the dissident right, the social justice warrior era, the shifting meaning of “woke is over,” and how internet subcultures moved from fringe jokes to

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