The Real Investment Show Podcast

46:22

10-5-26 Q4 Market Outlook: Will Strong Markets Finish...

The Real Investment Show Podcast ·

2026/10/05

Can a strong year for stocks carry its momentum through the fourth quarter? History provides an interesting backdrop for the Q4 market outlook. Lance Roberts examines the forces that could shape markets through year-end, including rising earnings estimates, corporate buybacks, investor sentiment, liquidity, interest rates, and the continuing dominance of Technology. We'll also look at the other side of the setup: weak market breadth, elevated Treasury yields, narrow leadership, and the risk that

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03:54

10-5-26 Market Breadth Sends a Warning | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast ·

2026/10/05

The S&P 500 remains resilient, but market breadth is telling a very different story. The percentage of stocks on bullish buy signals and those trading above their 50- and 200-day moving averages has fallen sharply, even as the major index remains well above key technical support. Volatility remains subdued, momentum has cooled, and the S&P 500's previous deviation from its 200-DMA has narrowed without a major market decline. That leaves stocks caught between deteriorating participation beneath the

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51:11

10-2-26 Funeral Planning - Make the Decisions Before...

The Real Investment Show Podcast ·

2026/10/02

Funeral planning may not be anyone's favorite financial-planning conversation, but making decisions now can save your family money, confusion, and difficult choices later. Richard Rosso and Jonathan McCarty take a surprisingly entertaining look at the financial side of planning your own funeral, from traditional burial and cremation to cemeteries, niches, pet burials, aquamation, becoming a tree, and even having your cremains launched into space. We'll examine funeral and burial costs, prepaid

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48:40

10-1-26 From TINA to TIGA: Diversification Pays Again

The Real Investment Show Podcast ·

2026/10/01

For years, investors lived by TINA: "There Is No Alternative" to stocks. With interest rates near zero and bond yields offering little income, equities dominated the investment landscape. But that math has changed. Today, Treasury yields are above 5%, investment-grade corporate bonds offer competitive income, and real yields have climbed to levels not seen in nearly two decades. Meanwhile, stock valuations remain historically elevated. That creates TIGA: "There Is a Good Alternative." Lance Roberts

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06:30

10-1-26 Bond Yields May Be Setting Up a Trade |...

The Real Investment Show Podcast ·

2026/10/01

Treasury yields have spiked, with the 10-Year Treasury around 5.29%, but the technical picture suggests rates may be getting stretched. Historically, extreme deviations from longer-term trends have often been followed by a retracement in yields, potentially creating a short-term trading opportunity in longer-duration bonds. Lance Roberts examines the 20-year history of Treasury yields, the current technical setup, and why heavy short positioning in bonds could amplify a reversal if rates begin to

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47:49

9-30-26 Q&A Wednesday: What's Holding Up the Market?

The Real Investment Show Podcast ·

2026/09/30

The major indexes remain near record territory, but beneath the surface, the picture is considerably more complicated. Technology continues to provide important support while market breadth has weakened, Treasury yields remain elevated, and small- and mid-cap stocks have faced greater pressure. Meanwhile, investors are weighing the Federal Reserve's latest rate hike, higher bond yields, oil prices, stretched areas of the market, Nvidia's massive stock buyback, and questions about whether Technology

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04:00

9-30-26 Market Breadth Sends a Warning | Before the...

The Real Investment Show Podcast ·

2026/09/30

Markets remain stuck in consolidation, but beneath the major indexes, the picture looks considerably weaker. Only about 40% of stocks are trading above their 50-day moving averages, while small-caps, mid-caps, utilities, real estate, and financials have faced significant pressure. At the same time, the growing number of stocks hitting 52-week lows and falling below key moving averages may be pushing market breadth toward more extreme levels. Historically, those conditions can become contrarian

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48:52

9-29-26 Stop Trying to Beat the Market

The Real Investment Show Podcast ·

2026/09/29

Can even the wealthiest investors consistently beat the market? Recent data comparing the Forbes 400 with the S&P 500 raises an important question about investment performance, indexing, and the pursuit of market-beating returns. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn examine why Americans across generations remain uncertain about their future financial needs, and what that says about the importance of planning beyond portfolio performance. Then, we put a real-world income decision under the microscope: a

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04:15

9-29-26 What the S&P 500 Is Hiding | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast ·

2026/09/29

The S&P 500 may look calm, but beneath the surface, the market is telling a very different story. Small-caps, mid-caps, utilities, real estate, and parts of Technology have been under pressure, while heavyweight stocks such as Nvidia have helped support the market-cap-weighted indexes. With the S&P 500 sitting near its 20-DMA and still trapped in a consolidation range, that growing market dispersion deserves attention. But investors should be careful about reading too much into short-term price

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45:09

9-28-26 Can the S&P 500 Really Reach 9,000?

The Real Investment Show Podcast ·

2026/09/28

Can the S&P 500 really reach 9,000? Jefferies has set a 9,000 target for the index by the end of 2027, but getting there may require nearly everything to go right. Lance Roberts examines the assumptions behind that forecast, including earnings growth, historically high profit margins, AI-driven capital spending, market valuations, and interest rates. With earnings estimates moving higher instead of following their typical pattern of downward revisions, Wall Street's outlook has become increasingly

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04:02

9-28-26 Is a Major Market Rotation Coming? | Before...

The Real Investment Show Podcast ·

2026/09/28

Markets are sitting near all-time highs, but underneath the surface, the picture looks very different. Technology and Energy have been leading while interest-rate-sensitive sectors, including Real Estate, Financials, Industrials, and Utilities, have come under pressure. That widening gap matters. Lance Roberts looks at market breadth, sector dispersion, rising interest rates, and why portfolios without heavy Technology or Energy exposure may be lagging the major indexes. Could the next move be a

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42:51

9-24 26 Will the Next Trade Be Bonds?

The Real Investment Show Podcast ·

2026/09/24

With interest rates, inflation, oil prices, Treasury yields, and stock market valuations all competing for investors' attention, what should you be watching now? As the S&P 500 approaches record territory, can markets sustain a breakout, or are new risks beginning to emerge? Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff answer your questions from the YouTube live chat, and break down the economic, investing, and consumer stories shaping markets this week. We'll discuss what the latest economic and market signals

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05:01

9-24-26 Why Your Portfolio May Be Lagging the S&P 500...

The Real Investment Show Podcast ·

2026/09/24

The S&P 500 remains trapped in a consolidation range, but the headline index may be hiding significant weakness beneath the surface. Small-cap, mid-cap, micro-cap, and equal-weighted stocks have come under pressure as higher interest rates, a stronger U.S. dollar, and signs of slower economic activity weigh on more rate-sensitive companies. Meanwhile, money has increasingly concentrated in large-cap and mega-cap stocks, creating a growing disconnect between the S&P 500 and the experience of

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51:45

9-23-26 Q&A Wednesday: Rates, Risks, & Record Highs

The Real Investment Show Podcast ·

2026/09/23

With interest rates, inflation, oil prices, Treasury yields, and stock market valuations all competing for investors' attention, what should you be watching now? As the S&P 500 approaches record territory, can markets sustain a breakout, or are new risks beginning to emerge? Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff answer your questions from the YouTube live chat, and break down the economic, investing, and consumer stories shaping markets this week. We'll discuss what the latest economic and market signals

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03:35

9-23-26 Is Money Rotating From Growth to Value? |...

The Real Investment Show Podcast ·

2026/09/23

Is the market beginning to rotate from mega-cap growth stocks into value? Our Factor Rotation model has shifted away from large-cap growth and toward value as the gap between overbought growth stocks and oversold value stocks widens. Large-cap growth has been exceptionally strong, with MGK reaching new highs and becoming increasingly overbought. Meanwhile, VTV and large-cap value stocks have been under pressure, leaving parts of the value market significantly oversold. Historically, extremes like

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04:14

9-22-26 S&P 500 Eyes New Highs | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast ·

2026/09/22

The S&P 500 broke above its 20-day moving average and is now within striking distance of an all-time high. After weeks of consolidation, momentum is improving, and a new buy signal could put record highs back in play. Technology and semiconductor stocks are helping lead the move, with the Nasdaq and Technology sector challenging their previous highs. But another development may be taking shape beneath the surface: rotation into beaten-down areas of the market. Financials and Basic Materials have

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46:46

9-21-26 What Happens When Earnings Estimates Fall Short?

The Real Investment Show Podcast ·

2026/09/21

Earnings expectations can drive stock prices higher, but what happens when corporate profits fail to meet those expectations? Lance Roberts examines earnings mean reversion, why Wall Street estimates can become overly optimistic, and what falling short of projected earnings could mean for stock valuations and market returns; what is the relationship between earnings growth and economic growth, how expectations become embedded in stock prices, and why elevated valuations can make earnings

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40:11

9-18-26 Will Your Money Last as Long as You Do?

The Real Investment Show Podcast ·

2026/09/18

Living longer changes almost every assumption behind traditional retirement planning. As more Americans reach retirement age and potentially spend decades in retirement, planning must extend well beyond simply building a large enough portfolio. Richard Rosso and Jonathan "Smarty" McCarty examine the financial realities of longevity, including the fear of running out of money, identifying reliable retirement income sources, withdrawal and tax strategies, long-term care and hybrid insurance policies,

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44:02

9-17-26 What the Fed Said

The Real Investment Show Podcast ·

2026/09/17

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years, but for investors, the bigger question is what comes next. Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz break down what the Fed said, what Chairman Kevin Warsh signaled about inflation and future monetary policy, and why the Fed's updated rate projections matter for markets. With most policymakers anticipating another rate increase this year, is this the beginning of a new tightening cycle, or could the Fed be closer to "one and

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04:49

9-17-26 What Fed Rate Hikes Mean for Stocks | Before...

The Real Investment Show Podcast ·

2026/09/17

Markets reversed sharply after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled another potential rate hike by year-end and no rate cuts next year. Now the S&P 500 is testing support near the 100-day moving average as investors reassess what tighter monetary policy could mean for stocks. Historically, markets have tended to struggle during the first three months after the Fed begins hiking rates before recovering over the following year. But history is an average, not a forecast. With earnings still strong, corporate

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