John Mearsheimer - Offensive Realism - Podcasts

38:52

Episode 11: Trump Can’t Bluff Iran into Surrender

John Mearsheimer - Offensive Realism ·

2026/10/06

DESCRIPTION It seems clear that the Trump administration and its allies are working overtime to create the false impression that the United States is well on its way to defeating Iran and that Tehran should therefore submit to American demands sooner rather than later. If it does not, so the argument goes, not only will the economic punishment inflicted on Iran reach crushing levels, but President Trump will launch a devastating military attack that might even include putting U.S. ground for...

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11:55

Forget Vietnam, You Get Iran And Iraq | Ask The...

John Mearsheimer - Offensive Realism ·

2026/10/03

I'll explain how the Vietnam War shaped my thinking about international relations, and the lessons it holds for today.

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7:21

Will China Attack Taiwan? | Ask The Professor

John Mearsheimer - Offensive Realism ·

2026/10/02

I'll explain why I believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the next decade is unlikely, and the one scenario that could change that.

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54:05

Episode 10: The Inescapable US-China Rivalry

John Mearsheimer - Offensive Realism ·

2026/09/29

President Trump and President Xi Jinping just concluded a three-day summit in Washington, DC, that was noteworthy for its lofty rhetoric and almost complete lack of progress in dealing with a host of truly important issues: AI, Iran, Taiwan, trade, and Ukraine. The Economist maintains that the two leaders “squandered a chance to tackle the world’s gravest threats,” which it argues “amounts to a dereliction of duty, and leaves the rest of humanity as the losers.” I disagree. I will review what...

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41:11

Episode 9: Is Ukraine Committing National Suicide?

John Mearsheimer - Offensive Realism ·

2026/09/22

Iuliia Mendel, who served as President Zelensky’s press secretary from 2019 to 2021, published an article in The Spectator on September 15, 2026, titled “Zelensky’s Strategy Is National Suicide.” In essence, she makes a compelling case that Ukraine is not simply losing its war with Russia but is being so thoroughly wrecked in the process that it is effectively committing national suicide. Mendel made much the same case the following day, September 16, in a virtual address to an event a...

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46:31

Episode 8: The Russia I Saw

John Mearsheimer - Offensive Realism ·

2026/09/16

I recently spent 8 days in Russia – September 5-12, 2026 – mainly in Moscow and St. Petersburg. I gave a series of talks and interviews and spoke with numerous people in the Russian security community, including senior figures like Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. In this episode, I describe what I learned during my trip.

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42:18

Episode 7: A Must Read Book on the Israel Lobby

John Mearsheimer - Offensive Realism ·

2026/09/09

Eli Clifton and Ian Lustick have just published a terrific new book called Israel’s Lobby: America in the Grip of a Foreign Power. It appears twenty years after Steve Walt and I published “The Israel Lobby” in The London Review of Books (March 2006), which we turned into a book a year later. Much has happened regarding Israel, the Israel lobby, and the US-Israeli relationship in the two decades since Steve and I first addressed those subjects. Clifton and Lustick do a great job explaining tho...

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51:04

Episode 6: Why Ukraine Is Doomed

John Mearsheimer - Offensive Realism ·

2026/09/01

In recent months, Western news coverage of the Ukraine war tells us that Russia is suffering huge casualties on the battlefield while making hardly any progress capturing Ukrainian territory. At the same time, Ukraine’s long-range drone attacks on the Russian homeland are wreaking havoc, which will improve Ukraine’s position at the bargaining table. In short, Russia is in deep trouble and Ukraine’s situation is hardly dire. This episode explains why this perspective is wrong. Russia is winnin...

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34:26

Episode 5: The False Promise of Tactical Nuclear Weapons

John Mearsheimer - Offensive Realism ·

2026/08/24

There is considerable evidence that the US is interested in “expanding its options” for using its nuclear arsenal. In particular, it appears that the Pentagon would like to increase its reliance on tactical nuclear weapons for both deterrence and warfighting should deterrence fail. I will argue that fighting a war with tactical nuclear weapons is unlikely to produce a meaningful military victory and is likely to have catastrophic consequences. In fact, the US and NATO embraced this ver...

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32:15

Episode 4: The MOU Is Dead! Can a Blockade Save Us?

John Mearsheimer - Offensive Realism ·

2026/08/17

The June 17, 2026, Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) expired today – August 17, 2026. The US has not achieved any of its initial objectives. It is now mainly concerned with opening the Strait of Hormuz without having to accept Iran’s far-reaching demands for ending its blockade of the Strait. The Trump administration is trying to achieve that goal with a naval blockade, a strategy it employed earlier in the war, and which failed. I will argue that the strategic situation facing the US ...

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29:49

Episode 3: Iran Has Trump Over A Barrel

John Mearsheimer - Offensive Realism ·

2026/08/11

The aim of this video is to compare the terms of the new deal to end the Iran war, which key Iranian spokesmen have just described, with those of the June 17, 2026, Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Tehran and Washington. I will explain why President Trump should have embraced the original MOU instead of walking away. The US has since lost significant bargaining leverage, and is now facing Iranian demands that far exceed those in the original MOU. It is difficult to see how Tr...

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42:31

Episode 2: Trump Must Admit Defeat In Iran

John Mearsheimer - Offensive Realism ·

2026/08/03

In today’s video I’ll explain why I believe a US victory is not possible and why the longer Trump waits to cut a deal with Iran, the worse the outcome for the US. I’ll argue that Trump would have been wise to settle the war months ago, after the initial bombing campaign failed. Instead, he kept looking for some way to win the war or at least find an off ramp that would allow him to make the case that the US achieved some of its goals and did not walk away from the fight empty-handed. B...

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37:28

Episode 1: Origins of the War In Ukraine

John Mearsheimer - Offensive Realism ·

2026/07/30

In this video, my first substantive one, I lay out my theory of conventional deterrence and use it to explain Russian thinking in the run up to the war in Ukraine as well why the war has taken the form it has over the past 4+ years. The key question I address is: why wasn’t Russia deterred from attacking Ukraine? After all, Russia did not have a large and finely-tuned army and the West had gone to substantial lengths to arm and train the Ukrainian army between February 2014 and February 2022...

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John Mearsheimer - Offensive Realism

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