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PODCAST

A Dash of Coldwater Economics

Scan Widely, Watch Closely. For years I"ve tracked around 500 data-sets from the world"s leading economies every month to produce the most data-rich suite of shocks & surprises indexes. When something catches my eye, this daily podcasts talks about it . . . briefly.

business

All Episodes

00:06:41

US CPI Surprise - What it Means for US and Global...

A Dash of Coldwater Economics ·

2022/08/10

The US July CPI result was better than expected, with headline inflation moderating to 8.5% yoy (from 9.1% in June), mainly thanks to a 4.6% mom fall in energy costs. This was on the back of a 10.4% mom fall in Brent oil prices and a 8.5% mom fall in Nymex natural gas prices. It is not obvious this is being repeated in August: so far, on average oil prices have fallen a further 7.5% mom, but gas prices have rebounded 12.6% mom, and overall the CRB index, which fell 9.5% in July, is almost

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00:06:04

US 2Q GDP - Profits and Stockmarket Valuations

A Dash of Coldwater Economics ·

2022/07/28

I'm less concerned with the recession/no-recession arguments (hey, don't US politics just absolutely fascinate you? Me neither), than with the implications for profits and stockmarket valuations. Three observations:1. Regardless of headline GDP, once you strip out extremely volatile inventory-flows, there's been essentially no growth in final sales of domestic product now for five quarter. There's just no momentum at all. 2. The massive fiscal stimulus has not yet completely been washed out of the

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00:05:12

The US Camel's All Tapped Out

A Dash of Coldwater Economics ·

2022/07/22

The speed and severity with which data from the US has collapsed over the last month is extremely unusual. Why is the outbreak of inflation doing such damage so quickly. One reason is the way in which the US profits model has changed over the years, until since 2000 to the present day, 77.6% of Kalecki profits are attributable to household and government dissavings, whilst only 22.4% come from net investment and net exports. Compare that to 1960-1980, when net investment and exports accounted for

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00:07:20

ECB's Transmission Protection Instrument, UK's...

A Dash of Coldwater Economics ·

2022/07/21

Two things today: first, a closer look at the ECB's so-called 'Transmission Protection Instrument'. Short take: it's open ended, with only decorative conditionality. The real constraint is that it mustn't inflate the ECB's balance sheet. So if it wants to do anything other than short-term fire-fighting in (say) Italy's bond market, it will have to do so by selling (say) German bonds. That'll make ECB meetings fun to watch. Second thing: today's UK public sector deficit of £22.1bn featured an

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00:03:32

UK Inflation - No Good News

A Dash of Coldwater Economics ·

2022/07/20

The UK is about to enter the strange and disturbing world of sustained double digit inflation. We can tell that from the underlying trends generating June's 9.4% yoy headline CPI, but also by the way the gap between input PPI (24% yoy) and output PPI (16.5% yoy), and the gap between output PPI and CPI are continuing to widen. Not until we see some evidence that the pressure to 'pass-through' factory inflation pressures has peaked can we expect headline CPI to retreat. There's no sign of that

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00:05:54

Stop/Starting China's Economy

A Dash of Coldwater Economics ·

2022/07/18

Fiscal policy is doing the heavy lifting as China seeks to re-start its economy following zero-Covid strategy lockdowns. June's monthly data suggests they're having some success in re-opening, even if this isn't obvious in the yoy results. But 2Q GDP growth of 0.4% yoy catches China's economy at its lowest ebb, and the closer you look at it, the uglier it gets. After all, this 0.4% yoy growth was generated really only by net exports and a surging fiscal deficit - strip those out and 2Q nominal

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00:04:48

World Economic Bulletin - 15th July

A Dash of Coldwater Economics ·

2022/07/15

People are queuing outside some small banks in Henan, desperate to rescue their deposits. Is this the start of another near-collapse of China's banking system. On balance, the available evidence makes that very unlikely.

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00:04:56

World Economic Bulletin - 9th February. HK's Reserves...

A Dash of Coldwater Economics ·

2022/02/09

We've now had more of January's foreign reserves data for Asia, and its generally shown modest falls, as you'd expect when the dollar strengthens and asset prices fall. To recap: China's reserves fell 0.9% mom, Japan's fell 1.4% S Korea's fell 0.3% (thanks to some very active switching out of bonds);and Indonesia fell 2.5% (includes some foreign debt repayment). But Singapore managed a 0.1% rise. Today we had Hong Kong, which reported reserves down 0.9% mom - ie pretty much in line with what we've

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00:04:47

World Economic Bulletin - 7th February

A Dash of Coldwater Economics ·

2022/02/07

There are statistics raw, and there are statistics adjusted. By and large, the more statistics are adjusted to give a 'clearer view', the more careful you've got to be about them. With that in mind, I want to share some observations on Friday's US labour survey data. On the face of it they were extremely positive: non-farm payrolls were up 467k, and Dec's payrolls were revised up to 510k from an initial 199k. Even more spectacularly, Jan's h'hold survey of employment found employment up 1.199mn,

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00:04:22

World Economic Bulletin - 2nd February

A Dash of Coldwater Economics ·

2022/02/02

I'd expected that inflation was coming back for a second bite in January, but Eurozone's Jan CPI was far worse than even I had expected. Headline CPI up 5.1% yoy, with a monthly rise 3.3SDs above historic trends. Energy alone was up 6% mom and 28.6% yoy, but in addition, F&B was up 1.1% mom and 3.6% yoy. Energy and food - even if energy prices calm down, food inflation will stay with us, thanks to the longer-term impact of the jump in fertilizer prices. Strip energy and food out, and core CPI

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00:04:07

World Economic Bulletin - 1st February

A Dash of Coldwater Economics ·

2022/02/01

Jan's inflation has regained some momentum, reversing the slight relief we got in Dec's results. We've now had Jan CPI flashes from both Germany and France, and they confirm it. Germany's CPI was up 4.9% yoy against a very steep base of comparison (because Jan 2021 was when German CO2 charges really escalated). The monthly rise of 0.4% mom is 2.2SDs above historic seasonal trends. Not only was energy up 20-.5% yoy, but food was also up 5%. This year, food inflation is going to feature heavily around

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00:04:04

World Economic Bulletin - 28th January

A Dash of Coldwater Economics ·

2022/01/28

Germany's Deficit Blowout Today's most important surprise - or shock - came from Germany, whicc reported a federal budget deficit of Eu48.bn for December. That compares with a surplus of Eu2.9bn in December last year, so it's a massive turnaround. It's not because revenues are down, it's because spending is truly spiraling: revenues were up 35.3% yoy, with a monthly movt 2.4SDs above historic seasonal trends. But spending jumped 153% yoy, with the monthly movt a trend-shattering 5.1SDs above

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00:05:01

World Economic Bulletin - 27th January

A Dash of Coldwater Economics ·

2022/01/27

US GDP - Cyclical Position, Profits, S&P Valuations In volume terms, GDP rose an annualized 6.9%, which was stronger than the 5.7% consensus expected, and a sharp acceleration from the 2.3% annualized in 3Q. But that strength is misleading, since approximately 74% of the qoq growth recorded in 4Q came from a build-up of private inventories. There's no way of knowing how voluntary that build-up of inventories was: remember, yesterday we reported retail inventories up 4.4% in Dec after retail

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00:04:00

World Economic Bulletin - 26th January

A Dash of Coldwater Economics ·

2022/01/26

EU Heavy Truck Sales In the US, heavy truck sales have proved a remarkably fine and prescient early cyclical indicator, not only being a good investment spending signal, but also being highly sensitive to broader commercial demand. But they are not closely followed in Europe. I've decided to include them in my European shocks & surprises universe. And first time out, in December, we hit something that might be cyclically useful: EU heavy truck sales rose 23.5% yoy in December, with a monthly

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00:03:49

World Economic Bulletin - 20th January. German Energy...

A Dash of Coldwater Economics ·

2022/01/20

Germany's reported a shocking 24.2% yoy rise in its December PPI. This was far above the 19.4% consensus expected, and was generated by a 5% rise which was no less than 7.9SDs above historic seasonal trendsl 7.9SDs! Of course, at the heart of this was energy prices, which jumped 15.7% mom and 69% yoy, with natural gas up 122% yoy and electricity up 74% yoy. Now, a 15.7% mom jump in energy prices is actually quite difficult to explain, since in dollar terms Brent oil prices fell 7.6% mom in December

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00:04:37

World Economic Bulletin - 19th January. Learning to...

A Dash of Coldwater Economics ·

2022/01/19

Today we got the UK's inflation data for December, which found CPI up 5.4% yoy, on the back of a 0.5% mom rise which was 1.9SDs above historic seasonal trends. That 1.9SD deflection from trend is a sharp improvement from Nov's 3.8SD and Oct's 6.3SD deflections. But it's still grim enough, and means that we should expect to see inflation at just under 6% in 1Q, rising to 6.3% in 2Q, 6.7% in 3Q and 6.1% in 4Q. Currently, UK 10yr yields are running at just 1.3%, so there's a 5.4pp gap between that and

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00:04:31

World Economic Bulletin - 17th January.

A Dash of Coldwater Economics ·

2022/01/17

China's taxing problem Although China gave us both its full December data-release as well as its 4Q GDP results, we learned only a very limited amount. For years now, the rule governing China's monthly data is 'no drama please'. And so it was again today: industrial production up 4.3%, electricity down 2.1%, retail sales 1.7%, urban investment 4.9% ytd. These are all weak, but also all quite tightly in line with consensus. None of them featured in my shocks & surprises index for China. My

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00:04:30

World Economic Bulletin - 14th Jan

A Dash of Coldwater Economics ·

2022/01/14

US Retail Sales No doubt about what's grabbing the attention today - it's US retail sales value, which fell 1.9% mom, or, if you ex-out vehicle sales, fell 2.3% mom. That's the worst since February 2021, and since these are value numbers, worse than they look, since the US was running CPI inflation at 7% yoy in December. The immediate reaction is to blame it on the resurgence of covid, but that won't wash. First, the most recent covid surge in the US kicked off around 18th December, by which time I

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00:03:23

World Economic Bulletin - 13th January

A Dash of Coldwater Economics ·

2022/01/13

Fading Investment Signals Spare a moment to think about Japan's Dec machine tool orders, which were on the weak side in December. True, they rose 40.5% yoy, but the monthly movt was 1.3SDs below historic seasonal trends. The weakness was mainly foreign: export orders, which usually make up about two-thirds of orders, rose only 30.6% yoy and were 1.2SDs below trend, whilst domestic orders were still up 6.12% yoy (and were 0.7SDs below trend). What's going on? Two things are worth considering. First,

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00:04:34

World Economic Bulletin - 12th January

A Dash of Coldwater Economics ·

2022/01/12

Today I talk about US inflation and Eurozone industrial production numbers. US December inflation: headline, up 0.5% mom sa, but the real headline is that unadjusted, the index was up 7% yoy, with a monthly rise 0.9SDs above historic seasonal trends. That's actually a bit of a relief from the 1.7SD deflection in November, and the 2.1SD deflection in October. But hold the celebrations: this is is probably not yet, quite, the peak of likely yoy: that's probably coming in February, when we can expect

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